FameEX Weekly Market Trend | March 6, 2025
2025-03-06 10:26:25
1. Key Insights on Crypto Market Trends
From March 3 to March 5, the BTC spot price swung from $81,425.07 to $94,843.21, a 16.48% range.
Over the past three days, key statements from the Federal Reserve（Fed) were as follows:
1) On March 4, Fed‘s Musalem expected steady economic growth but saw downside risks from recent consumer and housing data. He emphasized the need for restrictive monetary policy to bring inflation back to 2%.
2) On March 5, Fed’s Williams noted that tariffs would impact inflation and market sentiment, potentially slowing economic growth. He said monetary policy was well-positioned for adjustments if needed and that discussions on the balance sheet in Fed minutes hadn't changed the overall goal.
Both officials took a cautious stance.
On March 3, Elon Musk again criticized the Fed, calling it bloated and inefficient, urging stricter audits. He reposted a call to “dissolve the Fed” on X, adding: “The Fed has an absurd number of employees.” Musk also supports the U.S. leaving NATO and the UN.
According to the Cato Institute, the Fed had about 23,114 employees in 2023, including many researchers and over 400 PhD economists. Reuters reports the Fed cut around 300 jobs in 2023, a rare move in over a decade.
Key Economic and Social Targets from China’s 2025 Government Work Report
1. Economic Target: GDP growth of around 5%.
2. Employment Target: Over 12 million new urban jobs; urban surveyed unemployment rate around 5.5%; support for labor-intensive industries to create and stabilize jobs.
3. Inflation Target: Consumer price index (CPI) growth of around 2%.
4. Fiscal Target: Deficit ratio set at around 4%, up 1 percentage point from the previous year.
5. Special Bonds: Issuance of ¥1.3 trillion in ultra-long-term special bonds, an increase of ¥300 billion from the previous year; issuance of ¥500 billion in special bonds.
6. Social Security: Policies to promote childbirth and provide childcare subsidies; inclusion of eligible rural migrants in the housing security system; increase in resident medical insurance by ¥30 and the minimum basic pension for rural and urban residents by ¥20.
7. Market Environment: Comprehensive crackdown on “involution” competition; stricter measures against excessive fees, fines, inspections, and property seizures; firm prevention of unlawful cross-regional law enforcement and profit-driven enforcement.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Over the past three days, the total cryptocurrency market cap and trading volume have rebounded, with increased market activity. The Altcoin Season Index indicates a general rise in altcoin prices, while Bitcoin’s market dominance remains largely unchanged.
ETF funds continue to see net outflows, reflecting lingering market uncertainty. However, the prices of major cryptocurrencies and large-cap altcoins have begun a slow recovery. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 30, signaling a rebound from recent lows.
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for BTC and ETH on the top 8 exchanges are 0.5468% and 0.0859%, respectively, indicating that the overall market is still in a bull phase.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Over the past three days, BTC and ETH contract open interest has significantly declined, indicating a strong risk-averse sentiment among high-risk appetite traders. Most believe that after this major drop, using leverage for long positions will be safer.
4. Global Economic and Crypto Sector Developments
Macroeconomic Data:
1) On March 3, the Eurozone’s January unemployment rate was reported at 6.2%, lower than the forecast of 6.3%, with the previous value revised from 6.3% to 6.2%. The Eurozone’s January Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM increased by 0.8%, exceeding the expected 0.5%, with the prior figure revised from 0.4% to 0.5%.
2) On March 3, Japan’s January unemployment rate came in at 2.5%, slightly higher than the forecast of 2.4%, matching the previous value of 2.4%.
3) On March 3, the Eurozone’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a 2.4% year-over-year increase, slightly above the forecast of 2.3%, but lower than the previous reading of 2.5%. The month-over-month CPI rose by 0.5%, rebounding from the prior -0.3%.
4) On March 4, the U.S. ADP employment report showed an increase of 77,000 jobs in February, significantly below the forecast of 140,000 and the previous figure of 183,000, marking the smallest increase since July 2024.
5) On March 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to reducing interest rates. Following this statement, traders increased their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the market now fully pricing in three rate cuts in 2025.
6) On March 4, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that U.S. Treasuries could face a severe crisis within the next three years and urged the Trump administration to commit to deficit reduction.
7) On March 5, Canada’s GDP growth at the end of 2024 surpassed market expectations.
8) On March 5, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that if economic and inflation forecasts align with expectations, the BoJ will continue raising policy rates and adjusting monetary easing accordingly. He also clarified that there are no immediate plans to sell the BoJ’s ETF holdings.
9) On March 5, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that the economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks present in both directions. BoE policymaker Taylor noted that if secondary inflation effects emerge, the central bank will pause rate cuts.
10) On March 5, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill stated that if inflation continues to slow, further rate cuts could take place in 2025, but he opposes any larger or faster reductions. Meanwhile, BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden stressed that rate cuts should be gradual and cautious, though not necessarily slow.
Cryptocurrency Industry Updates:
1) On March 3, XRP surpassed USDT in market capitalization, reclaiming its position as the third-largest cryptocurrency globally.
2) On March 3, the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund aligned with U.S. crypto strategic reserve assets.
3) On March 3, CZ (Changpeng Zhao) stated that the current market is dominated by “U.S. crypto assets”.
4) On March 4, the founder of Infini left an on-chain message for the hacker, offering a 20% bounty on the stolen assets.
5) On March 4, the CEO of CryptoQuant remarked that the crypto market is gradually becoming a tool for advancing U.S. national interests.
6) On March 4, crypto projects raised a total of $951 million in February, marking a 14% month-over-month increase.
7) On March 5, a River Research study revealed that less than 4% of the global population owns Bitcoin.
8) On March 5, Animoca Brands reported $314 million in revenue for 2024, with its consulting division surpassing its Web3 business for the first time.
Regulatory Updates:
1) On March 3, Japan’s Finance Minister stated that a 110% tax on crypto assets is possible, but taxation policies are not limited to crypto assets.
2) On March 3, China’s Ministry of Public Security (Cybersecurity Bureau) warned the public to be cautious of criminal groups launching the “DeepSeek” blockchain project and creating the “DeepSeekCoin” cryptocurrency.
3) On March 3, Trump announced the U.S. crypto war reserve assets, favoring BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA. Arthur Hayes stated that the U.S. lacks budget support, making the crypto reserve plan merely theoretical. The Coinbase CEO suggested that investing solely in Bitcoin might be the best choice for the U.S. crypto reserve plan.
4) On March 4, the U.S. Senate voted to pass a bill repealing IRS crypto regulations, which is now awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives.
5) On March 4, Morocco intensified its crackdown on real estate transactions involving cryptocurrency.
6) On March 4, executives from Russian crypto companies expressed that Russia might establish a crypto reserve within one to three years.
7) On March 4, the White House expressed support for repealing the “crypto broker reporting rule” while opposing the expansion of DeFi regulations.
8) On March 4, Vietnam announced plans to introduce a legal framework for digital assets by the end of March.
9) On March 5, market sources reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a zero capital gains tax policy on crypto sales at the crypto summit this Friday. Adam Cochran stated that Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally abolish crypto capital gains tax, as only the U.S. Congress can make such changes.
10) On March 5, U.S. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated that the crypto task force has begun defining its scope, with some regulatory frameworks expected to be established within the year.
11) On March 5, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on 49 Bitcoin and Monero addresses linked to the Nemesis darknet market.
12) On March 5, Singapore’s Minister of State urged the public to stay away from cryptocurrencies and warned that severe crypto-related fraud cases may warrant caning.
Other News:
1) On March 3, former U.S. President Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs would take effect on April 2, while a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would be implemented on March 4, with no room for further negotiations on tariffs with these two countries.
2) On March 3, Zelensky stated that he is prepared to resign if Ukraine meets the conditions for NATO membership, while the CIA Director confirmed that the U.S. has stopped providing intelligence to Ukraine.
3) On March 4, China’s Tsinghua University announced plans to moderately expand undergraduate enrollment in 2025, with a focus on cultivating top-tier talent in “AI+” innovation.
4) On March 4, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is prepared to significantly increase defense spending and proposed a new mechanism to provide €150 billion in loans to member states for defense investments.
5) On March 4, OpenAI competitor Anthropic secured $3.5 billion in funding, bringing its valuation to $61.5 billion.
6) On March 5, the S&P 500 erased all gains made since the election, wiping out $3.4 trillion in market value.
7) On March 5, U.S. President Trump announced that the new Gold Card would soon be available for purchase, offering U.S. residency for $5 million, and stated that last month’s illegal border crossings hit a record low.
5. Market Outlook
From March 6 to March 9, the medium-term trading strategy will still be applied: for the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and the buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900, respectively.
For the ETH spot, the buy order at $2,040 has been filled, a sell order is set at $5,125, and the buy order at $1,730 remains active.
QCP Capital stated on its official channel that after Trump announced the crypto reserve, the confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with the swift retaliatory measures from Canada and China, further fueled the already uncertain crypto market.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Secretary hinted at a partial tariff reduction, which may be announced after Trump’s State of the Union address. As the macroeconomic landscape continues to shift, crypto remains closely correlated with stocks, with price movements reflecting broader economic trends. This Friday marks a historic milestone—the first White House Crypto Summit. However, with no concrete executive orders, funding commitments, or congressional support, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Many investors see this as a high-risk asymmetric event that could either drive prices up or trigger massive sell-offs.
The market is now closely watching key economic data releases: the Non-Farm Payroll report this Friday and the CPI data next Wednesday, both of which will play a crucial role in shaping market direction and providing much-needed clarity on the macro outlook.
Risk Reminder: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors are advised to control their positions and implement stop-loss strategies. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice from this exchange.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.