FameEX Weekly Market Trend | January 9, 2025
2025-01-09 09:41:15
1. BTC Market Trend
From January 6 to January 8, the BTC spot price swung from $92,462.44 to $102,803.05, an 11.18% range. In the past three days, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have made the following important statements:
1) On January 6, Federal’s Barkin expressed optimism for 2025, seeing no need for prior restrictive measures.
2) On January 7, Fed’s Cook indicated that a more cautious approach could be taken regarding rate cuts. Vice Chair Barr will resign on February 28 but remain a board member, allowing a new Trump appointment.
3) On January 8, Fed’s Waller, confident in declining inflation, supported further rate cuts and downplayed tariff impacts.
Bostic expected inflation to ease to 2% but urged caution.
4) On January 8, the ECB reported that consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 2.6% in November, up from 2.5% in October; three-year inflation expectations increased to 2.4%, higher than the previous 2.1%.
Former Vice President of the Bank of China, Wang Yongli, stated that Bitcoin closely mimics gold in terms of “currency”, with its total supply and incremental issuance strictly set by the system, even more rigid than gold (as the actual reserves of gold remain uncertain). The quantity available for exchange and trade is far more limited, making it unable to grow alongside the value of tradable wealth, thus failing to meet the fundamental requirements of currency. Furthermore, Bitcoin is a purely digital asset generated on the blockchain, not a natural physical asset. If trust is lost, it could become worthless, posing far greater risks than gold.
Following Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, his proposed Bitcoin policies have drawn widespread attention and debate. It is essential to remain calm, rational, and objective to avoid making critical mistakes. The U.S. cannot ensure that newly mined Bitcoin will be produced domestically, nor can it guarantee ownership by the U.S. government. The concept of a national Bitcoin strategic reserve, whether as a government (fiscal) reserve or a Fed (central bank) reserve for the U.S. dollar, carries significant risks and uncertainties.
According to the 2024 top 10 stablecoin transaction volumes, Solana and Ethereum lead, with emerging blockchains like Base making significant progress:
Solana: $10.5T
Ethereum: $7.8T
Tron: $5.4T
Base: $2.3T
BNB Chain: $899B
Arbitrum: $704B
Polygon: $255B
Avalanche: $246B
Optimism: $228B
TON: $38.7B
Latest statement from Trump: UAE investors will contribute $20 billion to build data centers in the U.S.; on his first day, he plans to overturn Biden’s offshore drilling ban; inflation is rampant, and interest rates are too high; he does not rule out using military or economic pressure to control the Panama Canal and Greenland, plans to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the U.S. Gulf, and intends to use economic power to merge Canada; NATO military spending should rise from 2% of GDP to 5%.
Reactions from other countries:
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau: Canada cannot become a U.S. state.
Danish Prime Minister: Greenland is not for sale.
Panamanian President: Will not comment on Trump’s remarks about the Panama Canal before his presidency.
From January 9 to January 12, keep monitoring ETH spot trading opportunities, including sell orders at $5,125 and dip buy orders at $2,040 and $1,730. For the BTC spot, maintain the sell order at $169,400 and dip buy orders at $73,970, $59,935, and $45,900. There’s no need to panic and just keep the orders in place.
2. CMC 7D Statistics Indicators
Overall market cap and volume, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
Crypto ETFs Net Flow: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
CoinMarketCap 100 Index: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/cmc100/
(Used to measure the overall performance of the top 100 cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap)
Fear & Greed Index, source: https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
3. Perpetual Futures
The 7-day cumulative funding rates for major exchanges’ mainstream cryptocurrencies are generally positive.
In the past three days, the open interest for BTC and ETH contracts has seen a slight decline.
Exchange BTC Contract Open Interest:
Exchange ETH Contract Open Interest:
Note: All the above information is provided for reference purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment advice.
4. Industry Roundup
1) On January 6, India intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrency fraud in 2024, teaming up with Google and Meta to combat “pig-butchering” scams.
2) On January 6, Bitcoin network settlement transactions in 2024 exceeded $19 trillion, more than double the $8.7 trillion in 2023.
3) On January 6, South Korea planned a phased removal of institutional cryptocurrency trading restrictions. Sources revealed that major banks in Spain are actively developing regulatory and operational frameworks to offer cryptocurrency ETPs.
4) On January 6, a Canadian cryptocurrency forum administrator was kidnapped after criminals mistakenly believed he held a large amount of Bitcoin. Police informed him they could not guarantee his family’s safety, forcing him to go into hiding.
5) On January 6, the U.S. Digital Sovereignty Alliance (DSA) was established to promote blockchain and AI policy development.
6) On January 6, CoinShares reported a net inflow of $44.2 billion into global digital asset investment products in 2024.
7) On January 6, Vietnam broke up a cryptocurrency mining scam ring, with over 200 victims. India’s CoinSwitch crypto exchange launched a recovery fund of around $70 million for victims of the WazirX hack.
8) On January 6, the Hong Kong police dismantled a scam ring using deepfake technology to lure people into investing in virtual currencies via social platforms, involving around HK$34 million.
9) On January 7, Jeju Island in South Korea announced plans to issue NFT travel cards to attract young tourists. Dutch regulators granted EU MiCA cryptocurrency licenses to four companies.
10) On January 7, the Distributed Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) sector saw significant growth in 2024.
11) On January 7, ETFs and listed companies bought 859,454 BTC in 2024, absorbing 4.3% of the circulating supply within a year.
12) On January 7, a Canadian prime minister candidate vowed to make the country the “cryptocurrency capital”.
13) On January 7, it was reported that China’s national data infrastructure guidelines aim to build a trustworthy data circulation system using blockchain, cryptography, and smart contracts.
14) On January 7, Binance Research reported that after the crypto market surged to a record $3.91 trillion in December, it declined, with BTC’s annual increase exceeding 123%.
15) On January 7, the U.S. CFTC chair warned of regulatory “gaps” in cryptocurrency and announced plans to step down. Anti-crypto U.S. Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr resigned.
16) On January 7, the U.S. Congress officially certified Trump’s presidential election victory and Vance as the next vice president.
17) On January 8, sources revealed that 20 “strategic Bitcoin reserve” bills would be proposed at the state level in the U.S.; an early Bitcoin investor was sentenced for tax fraud and ordered to surrender crypto asset private keys.
18) On January 8, the Solana Foundation proposed the addition of Accounts Lattice Hash to improve efficiency and security.
19) On January 8, Binance Research highlighted AI agent development as an emerging investment hotspot. Bitfinex reported that Bitcoin has strong medium-term upside potential, despite potential deep corrections in Q1.
20) On January 8, China’s State Council announced that the 2025 Spring Festival transport will run from January 14 to February 22, with cross-regional travel expected to reach 9 billion trips.
21) On January 8, the Guangzhou Financial Office issued the “Digital Currency 2.0 Plan”, exploring the implementation of digital yuan as the unified payment method for prepaid services in the city.
22) On January 8, U.S. December ADP non-farm payrolls recorded 122,000, below the market expectation of 140,000, marking the lowest level since August 2024. Initial jobless claims last week totaled 201,000, the lowest since February 17, 2024.
23) On January 8, OpenAI unveiled new products for 2025, including intelligent agents and AGI. Elon Musk stated that OpenAI has transformed into a closed-source, profit-maximizing company.
24) On January 8, EIGEN, ENA, MOVE, OP, APT, IO, and AXS tokens are set to unlock this week.
Disclaimer: FameEX makes no representations on the accuracy or suitability of any official statements made by the exchange regarding the data in this area or any related financial advice.